PolitiPorn™

by Duke, PolitiPorn Numbers Guy

I’m a numbers guy; seriously, it’s like beautiful mind without the beautiful part. Here are some highlights from yesterday’s primary that seemed relevant.

 

Results

 

Well she did it. She won Pennsylvania by 10% and theoretically, none of uncommitted Superdelegate has any more reason to come out for Obama than they did before.

 

(With 99% Reporting)

	Results		Delegates
Clinton	1,260,060	55%	81
Obama	1,045,148	45%	69

 

But did she really? Hmmm…

 

	Results
Clinton	1,260,060	54.66%
Obama	1,045,148	45.34%
Total (Rounded to the second decimal)	2,305,208	9.32%

 

Ah-ha. Let me correct this statement. Superdelegates with obsessive compulsive disorders do have a reason to support Obama.

 

 

Pollster Creditability

 

Starting off with those maniac pollsters, remember how they were all getting it wrong? Well some of them hit the number this time….

 

Table 1.1 Who was right (In Polls from the Last two days)

Zogby	Clinton	+10%
Suffolk	Clinton	+10%
Insider Advantage	Clinton	+10%

 

Table 1.2 Who was dead wrong

PPP (D)

Obama

+3%

Both tables courtesy of Real Clear Politics

 

 

Exit Poll Questions Standouts

 

The CNN Exit Polls offered a glimpse into the minds of the voters. This data should be taken with a grain of salt, but they tend to be more relevant in certain areas than others. Keep in mind that Clinton won the state by a 10 point spread, so 10% could, theoretically, be considered breakeven for her.

 

 

The gals showed up for Clinton, although it wasn’t quite the drubbing you may expect. (Note: Rumors have circulated that women did in fact get in free, and enjoyed $1 Margaritas until 11pm.)

 

Table 2.1 How the ladies voted

Voters	Turnout	Clinton Spread
Female	59%	14%

 

Have a looksie at the results by age. This figure tells me that Barack will win a general election against McCain. With these kids you can throw out all of the polling data showing McCain beating both Hillary and Obama, they have cell phones, live in dorms or with their parents or are rarely at home. They are largely unreachable by pollsters. Notice the fact that the over 40 (and feeling foxy) crowd made up 78% of exit polls. The Asperger’s in me loves this trend line.

 

Table 2.2 Age went straight down the line

Age	Turn Out	Edge	Spread
18-24	6%	Obama	32%
25-29	6%	Obama	10%
30-39	11%	Obama	14%
40-49	19%	Clinton	6%
50-64	37%	Clinton	12%
65 or Over	22%	Clinton	26%

 

 

If it ain’t white and old, it ain’t right and… young. This is truly a test to see if old white people still run the world, because if they had it their way Hillary would be president.

 

Table 2.3 Tribal Elders

Age/Race	Turnout	Clinton Spread
White 45-59	31%	24%
White 60 and Older	28%	34%
Total White 45+ Turnout	59%

 

 

This is What Jesus Would Do, assuming Jesus lived in Pennsylvania (I am at least 80% sure that he doesn’t.) Obama won the heretic vote handily.

 

Table 2.4 Heathen v. Pious

Frequency of Attendance	Turnout	Clinton Spread
Weekly	39%	22%
Never	17%	-12%

 

 

Look at the Catholic love for Clinton; she prochoice, (slightly) pro-gay, and probably doesn’t even think that she was put on this earth to serve men (arguable) and they still love her. Obama did great at people who worship at the temple of the other.

 

Table 2.5 Catholics and others (Note: They Split Protestants 50-50)

Religion	Turnout	Clinton Spread
Catholic/Weekly	18%	48%
Catholic/Less Often	18%	30%
All Others	38%	-22%

 

 

Money couldn’t buy a brother love. Obama may have outspent Clinton 2-1, but the 28% that read the flyers turn to Clinton by a 14 point spread.

 

Table 2.6 Obama Wasted Money on Ads

Importance of Campaign Ads	Turnout	Clinton Spread
Somewhat Important	28%	14%
Not Too Important	24%	10%

 

 

The only time Clinton hit her state wide 10% spread was with the HS Grads. While she won Some College and Postgrads, she fell way short of her number.

 

Table 2.7 Education factor

Education Level	Turnout	Edge	Spread
H.S. Graduate	24%	64%	28%
Some College	25%	53%	6%
College Graduate	20%	48%	4%
Postgraduate	26%	51%	2%

 

 

A big standout regarding the democrats and the economy was that only 65% of respondents thought that Obama could help the economy. This is not an abstract concept to Pennsylvania; they have lost more than 200,000 jobs since 2000 according the Alliance for American Manufacturing (Source).

 

Table 2.8 Candidates on the economy

	Yes	Clinton	Obama
Can Clinton Improve Economy?	75%	66%	34%
Can Obama Improve Economy?	65%	36%	64%

 

 

It’s pretty interesting what happened here. Clinton managed a 20 point spread in responders between $100 and $150K, but every time a Bentley door is carefully shut an Obama gets his wings.

 

Table 2.9 More fodder for elitist hysteria

Vote by Income	Turnout	Edge	Spread
Under $15,000	8%	Obama	4%
$15-30,000	14%	Clinton	10%
$30-50,000	20%	Clinton	12%
$50-75,000	20%	Clinton	14%
$75-100,000	13%	Clinton	2%
$100-150,000	13%	Clinton	20%
$150-200,000	5%	Obama	6%
$200,000 or More	8%	Obama	20%

 

 

Hold on your shorts on this on. This is evidence that if Clinton wins the nomination it will disenfranchise a majority of the democrat’s most reliable constituency.

 

Table 2.10 (I am too much of a coward to make any joke here)

	Turnout	Obama Spread
Black Democrats	11%	78%

 

This figure tickles me. Of the 20% that felt gender was at least a contributing factor to their decision… 29% voted for the man. It should be granted that female bias is just as sexist as male bias.

 

Table 2.11 Huh?

Was Gender of Candidate Important?	Turnout	Clinton	Obama
Yes	20%	71%	29%

 

 

If you see a Clinton sign in front of a house for Christsakes do not come uninvited or graze in front of it.

 

Table 2.12 Packing Heat

Gun Owner in Household?	Turnout	Edge	Spread
Yes	37%	Clinton	24%
No	63%	Obama	2%

 

 

Well fuck me 57% of respondents, including 24% of Obama voters would lend money to Hillary. Obama di better by ten points.

 

Table 2.13 Clinton-Trusters

Is Clinton Honest and Trustworthy?	Turnout	Clinton	Obama
Yes	57%	76%	24%
No	41%	22%	78%

 

Table 2.13 Obama-Trusters

Is Obama Honest and Trustworthy?	Turnout	Clinton	Obama
Yes	67%	37%	63%
No	31%	89%	11%

 

 

It is officially more important in Pennsylvania to support the economists than the troops. Granted, the economy is in the shitter for the primary democrat demographic, but where did Iraq go? Obama supporters represented 27% of respondents that cited Iraq as the most important issue.

 

Table 2.14 If (fill in the blank) happens the economists win

Most Important Issue	Turnout	Clinton	Obama
Economy	55%	58%	42%
Iraq	27%	45%	55%
Health Care	14%	54%	46%

 

 

 

Obama is doing well with the liberal side of the Democratic Party, but gets housed with moderates. This is a little frightening; if Obama can’t get the independent vote he will have to rely entirely on better turnout for youth and blacks. The upside for Obama is that he will generate better turnout for youth and blacks.

 

Table 2.15 Dividing the party

Vote by Ideology	Turnout	Edge	Spread
Very Liberal	18%	Obama	10%
Somewhat Liberal	31%	Clinton	2%
Moderate	41%	Clinton	20%
Somewhat Conserv.	8%	Clinton	6%

 

 

Ok goddamit, Hillary wins on experience and Obama wins on change. How the Clinton campaign sold the argument that she actually cares about people staggers the Imagination. Obama didn’t even get half the edge in change as Clinton did in experience, but experience was only half as important to respondents as change, so it’s a wash.

 

Table 2.16 Yes we know

Top Candidate Quality	Turnout	Edge	Spread
Can Bring Change	50%	Obama	38%
Cares About People	13%	Clinton	12%
Experience	26%	Clinton	88%
Electability	9%	Clinton	12%

 

 

This is by far the most interesting statistic in my mind. A bold 13% of white respondents actually said that race was important in their decision. Fem-liberal white guilt, no no my friend, 75% of this group were Klansmen. A closed democrat primary for Christsakes! This is why I didn’t give Obama a shot in hell of winning Pennsylvania.

 

Table 2.17 I just threw up a little in my mouth

Was Race of Candidate Important to You	Turnout	Clinton	Obama
Whites Who Say Yes	13%	75%	25%
Whites Who Say No	66%	58%	42%
Blacks Who Say Yes	4%	N/A	N/A
Blacks Who Say No	9%	9%	91%

 

 

This is fun. Hillary gets independents, but Obama gets recovering Republicans.

 

Table 2.18 Obamlicans

Voter Registration Status in January	Turnout	Edge	Spread
Registered GOP	5%	Obama	-8%

 

 

I know I know… everyone figured this one out, but it’s another one of those beautiful trend-lines that people in my line of work love.

 

Table 2.19 Where to find the signs

Vote by Size of Community	Turnout	Edge	Spread
Big Cities	18%	Obama	-24%
Smaller Cities	10%	Clinton	2%
Suburbs	49%	Clinton	12%
Small Towns	8%	Clinton	18%
Rural	14%	Clinton	24%

 

 

Of course voters like to think that they are more objective than they really are, but taken at face value 23% of the Pennsylvania vote was still up for grabs last week. Unfortunately for Obama, Clinton picked up most of this. Maybe he shouldn’t have gone fucking negative.

 

Table 2.20 Lie to me baby

When Did You Decide Your Vote?	Turnout	Edge	Spread
Today	11%	Clinton	18%
Last Three Days	7%	Clinton	16%
Last Week	5%	Clinton	8%
Last Month	15%	Obama	14%
Before That	61%	Clinton	10%

 

 

Everyone has come to expect this figure as a total, but what interests me is that out of the 68% that accused Clinton of unfair attacks… 45% voted for Clinton.

 

Table 2.21 Down girl

Did Clinton Attack Unfairly?	Turnout	Clinton	Obama
Yes	68%	45%	55%
No	30%	72%	28%

 

 

According to most sources Obama did actually attack unfairly in Pennsylvania.

 

Table 2.22 Easy big fella

Did Obama Attack Unfairly?	Turnout	Clinton	Obama
Yes	50%	67%	33%
No	48%	40%	60%

 

 

 

Straight Results from the Exits

 

Table 3.1

National Economic Conditions	Total Result
Slowing Down	11%
Moderate Recession	47%
Serious Recession	42%

 

Table 3.2

Voter Registration Status in January	Total Result
Not registered in Pa	4%
Registered GOP	5%
Registered Indep.	4%

 

 

 

Top Counties for Each Candidate

 

This may only be relevant to both of our Pennsylvania readers, but I will try and flesh it out a little.

 

Top Five Clinton Strongholds

County	Clinton Results		Spread	Pop.	Med. Income*	Region
Fayette	23,057	79%	58%	149K	$33,772	Southwest
Greene	6,017	75%	50%	41K	$37,357	Southwest
Luzerne	48,075	75%	50%	319K	$41,531	Coal Region
Lackawanna	43,067	74%	48%	213K	$42,370	Coal Region
Schuylkill	15,355	74%	48%	150K	$40,231	Coal Region

*Per Household (US Average = $50,682)

 

Top Five Obama Counties

County	Obama Results		Spread	Pop.	Med. Income*	Region
Philly	281,183	65%	30%	1.4m	$30,746	Kind of close to Philly
Centre	14,170	60%	20%	136K	$44,491	Well… the Middle
Dauphin	25,543	58%	16%	253K	$51,055	Harrisonburg Metro
Delaware	52,380	56%	12%	551K	$50,092	Suburb of Philly
Chester	40,411	55%	10%	434K	$65,295	Suburb of Philly

*Per Household (US Average = $50,682)

 

 

Sources:         Exit Polls and Voting Results, CNN

                        County Demographics, US Census (2000)